The success of national populist parties across Europe may have less to do with their appeal than the continued lack of renewal among the political mainstream.
Daniel Sachs is chair of the Daniel Sachs Foundation and the Foundation for Democracy and Pluralism. He’s a founding council member of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Political commentary in the aftermath of last month’s European elections has tried to come up with reasons why voters are shifting to the political fringes. Why are their views becoming more extreme?
But the success of national populist parties across Europe may have less to do with their appeal than the continued lack of renewal within mainstream democratic parties. And to counter this extremism, mainstream parties need radical centrism — not populist mimicry.
For example, according to new polling data from Datapraxis, the reasons behind the political shift we’re observing are largely misunderstood. Most voters who switched to national populist parties in the European elections weren’t primarily motivated by their policies but rather a desire for change. Their votes were driven more by a lack of trust in conventional parties and leaders than by a deep commitment to the ideas these populist parties espouse.
This data suggests that ahead of the bloc’s June elections, less than a quarter of voters who switched to national populist parties primarily did so because they thought they had the best policies.
Around half or more of the poll’s respondents also consider their country’s political system to be broken — a figure that rises to 7 in 10 in Italy and France. And in most of these countries, large pluralities agree that most politicians are out of touch with ordinary people, and most individual politicians are disliked more than they’re liked.
It seems European politics is caught in a tug of war between a rise of these national populist parties that’s fueled by disenchantment, and, on the other hand, a strong mobilization of young voters — especially women — who turn out in defense of democracy and liberal values. And many of those still voting for centrist parties are often doing so just to vote against the far right.
Elections are now essentially a competition between desperation for real change and values-based resistance against democratic backsliding.
There are lessons to be learned here. For instance, mobilization against the far right was spectacularly successful in the French legislative elections. The New Popular Front coalition, established at record speed, brought the country’s progressive and left-of-center parties together in a marriage of convenience to prevent a far-right-led legislature. This was followed by a renewal of the Republican Front in the second round of voting, uniting the left and center-right, which stopped the far-right National Rally party from winning a majority of seats.
But while progressives may take some heart from this democratic alliance in the short-term, a lot more needs to be done than simply oppose. To win, democratic mainstream parties have to develop a new radical centrism. They need an injection of fresh ideas, fresh faces and a willingness to act on voters’ priorities with courage and pragmatism.
Without such a renewal of political leadership, without bringing politicians closer to the people they serve — through citizens’ assemblies and other forms of deliberative democracy — trust in established politics will only continue to wither. And centrist parties, which wrongly believe a majority of voters have changed their values, risk participating in a race to the bottom, pandering to extreme policies in a misguided attempt to woo them back.
This is doomed to fail. Such an approach will only help national populists by leaving their ideas unchallenged. And most importantly, it runs the risk of making mainstream parties a pale imitation of their opponents, distracting from their real mission: Offering ambitious and intelligent policies that will connect with the electorate.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s current woes should be a lesson to his centrist peers. Earlier this year, in an attempt to woo National Rally voters, his government passed a heavily criticized immigration law with votes from the far-right party — legislation that opposition leader Marine Le Pen called an “ideological victory.” And having now presided over a governmental shift to the right, Macron is viewed negatively by an overwhelming majority.
Centrists must avoid this type of thinking, assuming the issues national populists are obsessed with are also of utmost importance in the minds of voters. Though centrist parties often neglect the priorities of voters, in most countries, the issues the public cares about most are everyday concerns — the cost of living, health care and economic opportunities — and these tend to be more important vote drivers.
At the same time, in order to succeed, centrist parties need to expose the woeful track record of national populist parties in countries where they’ve exerted political power. Let’s take Poland: The policies of the country’s nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS) — such as a near total ban on abortion — were so polarizing, even many conservative voters could no longer support them, and the party was thrown out of office last October. After almost a decade in power, it was defeated by a mobilization of voters around core liberal values.
But again, PiS’s opponents benefited from powerful youth-driven social movements that rallied against national populists. In truth, mainstream centrists owe their success in recent European elections to this values-based energy — not their policy programs. And elected centrist parties must act quickly to repay this debt by getting on board with the process of renewal. They can’t rely on these movements indefinitely. They need to create their own political momentum while there’s still time.
Voters aren’t necessarily wedded to extremes, some are simply yearning to be heard, and to have a representative and inclusive government that matches rhetoric with action. The future of democratic politics hinges on established parties from the center left to the center right restoring voter trust through a renewed centrist approach — something that requires genuine commitment to institutional renewal, humble engagement with the electorate and reaffirming the foundational values of liberal democracy.