Voting has begun in the biggest byelection in British political history, with more than 2 million people eligible to choose Andy Burnham’s successor as Greater Manchester mayor.
In normal times, such a large and politically significant byelection would have dominated the headlines for weeks, particularly as senior Labour figures only weeks ago feared losing the prize mayoralty to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
But now Labour’s Bev Craig is expected to win comfortably in a contest that has been largely overshadowed by Burnham’s rapid ascent to prime minister.
Labour has benefited from a Burnham bounce in the polls and Reform UK’s focus has shifted 200 miles south-east to Clacton, where Farage is fighting a self-imposed parliamentary byelection against Count Binface.
A poll by More in Common this week gave Craig, the leader of Manchester city council, a 20 percentage point lead over Reform UK’s Sian Astley. Most of the 1,000-voter survey was carried out before Burnham became prime minister. The Greens were in third on 14 points, just ahead of the Conservatives.
The contest was triggered by Burnham winning the Makerfield byelection on 18 June, meaning he had to step down as mayor of the most powerful combined authority outside London.
The mayor of Greater Manchester controls a £3bn annual budget and powers across housing, health, policing and transport, centred around a city that has grown faster economically than anywhere else in the UK over the past decade.
The byelection is taking place under the supplementary voting system, which means that if no single party achieves 50% then second-choice preferences will come into play.
Labour is widely seen as having an advantage under this system as it is more likely to be picked as the second choice for Green, Lib Dem and even some Conservative voters. Reform UK, by contrast, cannot count on such broad support.
The More in Common poll found that Labour’s lead would stretch to 30 points if Reform UK finished second, as Craig is the most popular second choice for most Greens and a sizeable chunk of Conservatives.
Anything short of a strong second-place finish would be a blow to Reform UK, which won more than 100 seats in Greater Manchester in the May elections, including all but one of the 25 up for grabs in Wigan – the council of Burnham’s new constituency – and 18 out of 19 in Tameside, both once solidly Labour areas.
One senior Labour figure said the party expected to do much better in these areas in the mayoral byelection, having won back voters who backed Reform UK only two months ago in what many saw as a protest vote against Keir Starmer.
Reform UK’s projected vote has fallen nationally in recent weeks – the hard-right party was overtaken at the top of the polls by Labour this week for the first time since March 2025 – as Farage faced intense scrutiny over his funding.
Green sources believe the Greater Manchester polls underestimate the party’s popularity and that its support extends far beyond Manchester city centre, where it won a swathe of previously Labour seats in May and which is near the parliamentary constituency of Gorton and Denton it won in a February byelection.
For the Greens, which won 7% of the vote against Burnham when the Greater Manchester mayoralty was last contested in 2024, a doubling or more of their vote share would demonstrate the party’s ability to expand outside its recently formed urban-liberal power base.
All parties will be scrutinising Friday’s result with a view to the next set of local elections in May 2027, when a third of all seats in the 10 Greater Manchester boroughs are up for grabs in what could present a real electoral headache for Burnham.
Reform UK will be eyeing up control of councils including Bolton, Wigan and Rochdale next year, while the Green party will hope to threaten Labour’s half-century grip on control of Manchester city council, where it is now the second biggest party.
Yet campaigners in both Labour and Green camps say awareness of Thursday’s vote is low, potentially complicating pollsters’ predictions. The result is expected on Friday afternoon.
Unlike in Makerfield and Gorton and Denton, there is little obvious sign on the streets that such a mammoth byelection is under way, largely due to the huge expense of campaigning across a region of 2 million voters.
Given some weary residents will have voted three times in the past five months, many expect turnout to be lower than the 32% in 2024. Yet if even a third of registered voters cast their ballot, the verdict of 600,000 people is worth taking seriously.