- French PM François Bayrou warns of a “new world disorder” and domestic challenges, including pension reform and public debt.
- Bayrou, lacking a majority in the national assembly, risks a no-confidence vote if he fails to secure backing from opposition MPs.
- He proposes discussions on proportional representation for parliamentary elections and emphasizes the need for France to better control immigration.
- The political crisis in France is reminiscent of the 1958 crisis, with no immediate solution in sight.
In a recent policy speech to parliament, French Prime Minister François Bayrou, a seasoned centrist, expressed his concerns about the emerging new world disorder embodied by figures like Elon Musk. Bayrou, who took office a month ago, becoming France’s fourth prime minister in a year, warned that this disorder threatens all equilibrium and defense rules. Elon Musk, the tech billionaire and close ally of the US president-elect, Donald Trump, is expected to play a significant role in Washington over the next four years. Bayrou pointed out Trump’s threats to annex sovereign territories, including Greenland, the Panama Canal, and even Canada.
Bayrou’s Domestic Challenges
He emphasized that France must confront these global powers directly and demonstrate its determination. Bayrou’s tenure as prime minister comes at a time of domestic challenges. He is tasked with securing agreement on a long-overdue budget plan for 2025 and resolving bitter disputes over a 2023 pension reform. His predecessor, the right-wing Michel Barnier, was ousted in a no-confidence vote after just three months in office. Bayrou, who lacks a majority in the national assembly, could face a similar fate if he fails to secure sufficient backing from opposition MPs.
In an attempt to prevent the Socialist party from participating in another no-confidence vote, Bayrou expressed his readiness to reopen discussions on President Emmanuel Macron’s unpopular pension changes. These changes, pushed through in 2023, include a gradual increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64. Bayrou has decided to put this issue back on the table, with talks with trade unions and employers’ groups planned for a short time under transparent conditions. However, he warned that if no agreement is reached, the 2023 pensions law would remain intact.
Addressing France’s Public Debt
Bayrou also addressed the issue of France’s spiraling public debt in his speech to the divided French parliament. He described the debt as a sword of Damocles hanging over the country, threatening France’s robust social security system. He stated that France has never been as indebted as it is today since the war. He stressed that any recovery and rebuilding policy must take into account the country’s over-indebtedness and aim to contain and reduce it.
In addition to these domestic issues, Bayrou proposed discussions on proportional representation for parliamentary elections and emphasized the need for France to better control and regulate immigration. The political landscape in France has been tumultuous, with President Emmanuel Macron calling an election last year to break the political deadlock. However, the vote resulted in a hopelessly divided lower chamber. The government is under pressure from the European Commission for overspending and from high refinancing costs demanded by financial markets.
Political Crisis Echoes of 1958
The political crisis in France is reminiscent of the 1958 crisis that led to the establishment of the Fifth Republic. The current situation, with the eurozone in shambles and Trump’s demands accelerating the crisis, echoes the instability of that period. The French Prime Minister’s proposal of the same budget that collapsed the prior French government further exacerbates the situation. François Bayrou, the 73-year-old centrist and leader of the Democratic Movement, replaced Michel Barnier, who lost a confidence vote in parliament. Born into a wealthy farming family, Bayrou began his political career in the 1980s after working as a Latin and Greek teacher. Despite allegations of fraud, Bayrou was acquitted of charges in February of the same year.
The political crisis in France is expected to worsen, with no magic solution in sight. The far-left and far-right are aligned on some issues, notably the retirement age, but it remains to be seen how this will work in practice. The ultimate winner in this election will be the party that can stay as far away from the Center/Left catfight as possible.